Next week, the month of March arrives.
But for college basketball fans, the angst and excitement of March Madness has already arrived. With conference tournaments around the corner, the excitement for the 2026 NCAA Tournament is building among many fan bases.
Fans have been treated to potential Final Four previews, with Duke-Michigan and Houston-Arizona facing off on Saturday, Feb. 21. Another big one ― No. 11 Illinois hosting No. 3 Michigan ― is on the docket for Friday, Feb. 27, which could help determine final seeding for the tournament.
However, while fans of programs are certainly excited, the bigger joy fans get is watching the teams currently on the bubble playing for their postseason lives. For all intents and purposes, their NCAA Tournament has already begun for these teams.
Here’s a look at the latest NCAA Tournament preview, including bubble teams and locks to reach March Madness:
March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker
March Madness locks
Based on games through Tuesday, Feb. 24
- Big Ten (7): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin
- Big 12 (6): Iowa State, Arizona, Kansas, Houston, Brigham Young, Texas Tech
- ACC (6): Duke, Louisville, Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, North Carolina State
- SEC (5): Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee
- Big East (3): UConn, Villanova, St. John’s
- Other (3): Utah State, Gonzaga, Saint Louis
Thirty teams entered play on Tuesday, Feb. 24, with a 99.8% chance or better to reach the Tournament, according to Bart Torvik’s ‘TourneyCast.’ That number is up from the 27 entering play on Feb. 22.
Torvik’s metrics are used in the NCAA’s BPI equation, alongside third-party analyst Ken Pomeroy, also referenced as KenPom by college basketball fans.
NCAA Tournament likely ins
- Big 12 (1): UCF
- Big Ten (2): Indiana, UCLA
- ACC (2): SMU, Miami
- SEC (4): Kentucky, Texas A&M, Texas, Georgia
- Big East (0): N/A
- Other (2): Saint Mary’s, New Mexico
Even with two weeks left in the regular season, the likely-ins list is shorter than the locks. The teams on this list have between a 70% and 98.9% chance to reach the NCAA Tournament, per Torvik.
However, Texas and New Mexico have been big droppers over the past few weeks, while UCLA has worked itself into the equation following an upset win over Illinois on Feb. 21.
NCAA Tournament bubble teams
- Big 12 (3): Texas Christian, West Virginia, Cincinnati
- Big Ten (3): Ohio State, Southern California, Washington
- ACC (2): Virginia Tech, California
- SEC (2): Auburn, Missouri
- Big East (1): Seton Hall
- Other (3): Santa Clara, San Diego State, VCU
All of these teams have their work cut out to reach the NCAA Tournament, and not all of them are going to crack a spot in the tournament. They are going to either need to win out, win their respective conference tournament, or need some help with other teams stumbling.
However, having a shot is all that matters at this point in the season.
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